Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 18,314
2 New Jersey 16,666
3 Massachusetts 12,629
4 Rhode Island 12,078
5 Connecticut 10,690
6 District of Columbia 10,301
7 Delaware 8,081
8 Illinois 7,637
9 Louisiana 7,466
10 Maryland 6,596
11 Nebraska 5,492
12 Pennsylvania 5,208
13 Michigan 5,192
14 Iowa 4,739
15 South Dakota 4,552
16 Indiana 4,292
17 Colorado 3,850
18 Mississippi 3,841
19 Virginia 3,648
20 Georgia 3,450
21 New Mexico 2,907
22 Minnesota 2,904
23 Kansas 2,896
24 New Hampshire 2,685
25 Washington 2,605
26 Tennessee 2,601
27 North Dakota 2,533
28 Alabama 2,464
29 Ohio 2,434
30 Utah 2,303
31 Nevada 2,292
32 Wisconsin 2,184
33 Florida 2,161
34 California 2,073
35 Arizona 1,946
36 Missouri 1,828
37 North Carolina 1,823
38 Kentucky 1,799
39 South Carolina 1,736
40 Texas 1,717
41 Arkansas 1,594
42 Vermont 1,506
43 Idaho 1,373
44 Oklahoma 1,364
45 Wyoming 1,323
46 Maine 1,274
47 Oregon 874
48 Puerto Rico 848
49 West Virginia 838
50 Alaska 545
51 Hawaii 444
52 Montana 439

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Connecticut 189
2 District of Columbia 188
3 Rhode Island 181
4 Massachusetts 175
5 Delaware 169
6 Illinois 164
7 New Jersey 155
8 Maryland 153
9 Nebraska 148
10 Minnesota 126
11 Virginia 96
12 Iowa 95
13 New York 91
14 Indiana 80
15 North Dakota 74
16 Mississippi 70
17 New Mexico 68
18 Pennsylvania 65
19 Louisiana 62
20 Michigan 62
21 North Carolina 61
22 Colorado 55
23 South Dakota 52
24 Kansas 49
25 Wisconsin 49
26 Alabama 48
27 Utah 47
28 New Hampshire 46
29 Arizona 45
30 Georgia 43
31 Ohio 42
32 California 41
33 Tennessee 41
34 Arkansas 38
35 Florida 35
36 Missouri 35
37 Kentucky 34
38 Nevada 34
39 South Carolina 34
40 Texas 32
41 Wyoming 28
42 Maine 27
43 Oklahoma 26
44 Washington 26
45 Puerto Rico 17
46 Idaho 12
47 Oregon 11
48 West Virginia 10
49 Alaska 5
50 Vermont 3
51 Montana 1
52 Hawaii 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,454
2 New Jersey 1,174
3 Connecticut 967
4 Massachusetts 850
5 District of Columbia 555
6 Louisiana 524
7 Michigan 492
8 Rhode Island 477
9 Pennsylvania 356
10 Illinois 335
11 Maryland 334
12 Delaware 305
13 Indiana 262
14 Colorado 212
15 Mississippi 177
16 Georgia 152
17 Ohio 141
18 Washington 133
19 Minnesota 131
20 New Mexico 128
21 New Hampshire 126
22 Nevada 118
23 Virginia 118
24 Iowa 112
25 Alabama 99
26 Missouri 99
27 Arizona 94
28 Florida 92
29 Vermont 86
30 California 84
31 Kentucky 79
32 Wisconsin 78
33 South Carolina 75
34 Oklahoma 72
35 Nebraska 68
36 Kansas 65
37 North Carolina 65
38 North Dakota 57
39 Maine 52
40 South Dakota 49
41 Texas 46
42 Tennessee 43
43 Idaho 41
44 Puerto Rico 38
45 West Virginia 37
46 Arkansas 33
47 Oregon 32
48 Utah 24
49 Wyoming 17
50 Montana 14
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Connecticut 15
2 Massachusetts 13
3 District of Columbia 11
4 New Jersey 11
5 New York 9
6 Delaware 8
7 Rhode Island 8
8 Maryland 6
9 Colorado 4
10 Illinois 4
11 Louisiana 4
12 Indiana 3
13 Michigan 3
14 Mississippi 3
15 New Hampshire 3
16 Pennsylvania 3
17 Iowa 2
18 Minnesota 2
19 Nevada 2
20 New Mexico 2
21 Ohio 2
22 Arizona 1
23 California 1
24 Florida 1
25 Georgia 1
26 Missouri 1
27 Nebraska 1
28 Virginia 1
29 Wyoming 1
30 Alabama 0
31 Alaska 0
32 Arkansas 0
33 Hawaii 0
34 Idaho 0
35 Kansas 0
36 Kentucky 0
37 Maine 0
38 Montana 0
39 North Carolina 0
40 North Dakota 0
41 Oklahoma 0
42 Oregon 0
43 Puerto Rico 0
44 South Carolina 0
45 South Dakota 0
46 Tennessee 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 122,563 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 78,148 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 74,094 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 64,127 4 99
Lake Tennessee 57,583 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 5,993 259 91
Richland South Carolina 3,007 609 80
Pierce Washington 1,998 885 71
Orange California 1,406 1171 62
York South Carolina 1,082 1417 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 3,098 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,813 2 99
Early Georgia 2,748 3 99
Essex New Jersey 1,935 4 99
Nassau New York 1,865 5 99
Richland South Carolina 147 512 83
Pierce Washington 75 807 74
Davidson Tennessee 63 913 70
Orange California 28 1283 59
York South Carolina 18 1453 53

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons